38 consecutive quarters of positive IC

Where fundamentals meet market structure.

We combine validated factor research, cross-market liquidity analysis, and disciplined risk management to pursue asymmetric equity opportunities before they become consensus.

Japan IC
0.22
210 stocks, Nikkei + TOPIX
China IC
0.27
569 stocks, MCHI universe
Hit Rate
57–58%
Directional accuracy
Negative Quarters
0 of 38
Through all market regimes
Strategy

Five forces. One composite.

The market prices equities on five orthogonal forces. Most funds bet on one. We measure all five and let the data tell us what matters at each moment.

F1
Fundamentals
Earnings quality, growth, ROE, margins
~11%
F2
Valuation
P/E vs sector, P/B, earnings yield
~-9%
F3
Positioning
52-week range, RSI, 200-day MA
~0%
F4
Flow
OBV momentum, volume, accumulation
~-1%
F5
Liquidity
Depth, Amihud, bid-ask, VIX overlay
~9%

Weights are adaptive — the composite regenerates every 42 days. No single factor dominates across regimes.

Quintile Spreads

Out-of-sample returns per 42-day rebalance window. Q5 = top quintile (buy). Q1 = bottom quintile (avoid). 2020–2026.

Japan — 210 stocks
Q5
+8.9%
Q4
+3.9%
Q3
+2.7%
Q2
+1.3%
Q1
-0.1%
IC range: +0.09 to +0.37 · 19 of 19 quarters positive
China — 569 stocks (MCHI)
Q5
+12.5%
Q4
+3.7%
Q3
+1.1%
Q2
-0.1%
Q1
-3.3%
IC range: +0.17 to +0.47 · 19 of 19 quarters positive · Through property crisis and tech crackdowns
Investment Process

Walk-forward. Never curve-fit.

We do not backtest. Every result is out-of-sample. The model trains on the past, scores the present blind, and lives through the future. Every 42 days, it proves itself again.

Train

252-day rolling window of factor exposures and forward returns. Ridge regression with L2 regularization.

Score

Apply learned weights to current factor values. Rank every stock. The model has never seen this data.

Live

Survive 42 trading days. Record actual returns. Feed results into the next training window. Repeat forever.

ParameterConfiguration
RegressionRidge (L2-regularized), λ = 0.05
Training window252 trading days, rolling
Rebalance cycle42 trading days
Factor normalizationCross-sectional Z-scores per step
Return winsorization±50% cap
Minimum breadth30 stocks per cross-section
Differentiation

Why this edge persists

Higher dispersion

S&P 500 quintile spreads average 3–5%. In China, we observe 15.8%. Fewer analysts per stock, more retail flow, more policy-driven mispricing. The opportunity set is structurally wider.

Wrong models applied

Most global funds apply US-calibrated factor models to Asia. Valuation is inverted here — expensive beats cheap. Flow is contrarian in China. Liquidity dominates both markets. These signals persist because consensus ignores them.

Expanding universe

Stock Connect, A-share inclusion, and HKEX reforms are adding hundreds of investable names. The opportunity set is growing faster than the capital chasing it.

Risk Framework

What keeps this strategy alive

Every strategy faces regimes where its edge disappears. We design for those moments explicitly.

RiskMitigation
Factor regime shiftFive-factor composite. When one factor decays, others compensate. Weight autocorrelation is positive — regimes are sticky enough to trade.
Liquidity crisisF5 filter eliminates illiquid names. Minimum market cap $1B. VIX overlay reduces exposure during stress events.
Single-name blowupEqual-weighted within Q5. No position exceeds 3% at entry. Maximum 39 positions (Japan), ~114 (China).
Turnover costs42-day rebalance, ~25–40% turnover per cycle. At 20bps per trade, cost drag under 1% annually.
Capacity constraintsHard cap at $200M AUM. Beyond this limit, top-quintile entry and exit would move prices in mid-cap A-shares.
Governance failureRolling 12-month IC below 0.05 for two consecutive quarters triggers an automatic strategy halt and review. No exceptions.
Portfolio Role

Where this fits in a portfolio

This strategy is designed for allocators seeking systematic, transparent, and uncorrelated Asia equity exposure.

Diversification

Asian factor correlations to US equities are structurally lower. The same 5-factor framework produces different dominant signals in each market — fundamentals lead in China, flow and liquidity in Japan.

Transparency

Every factor is defined. Every weight is traceable. Every trade is explainable. No black boxes. No proprietary secret sauce hidden behind a curtain.

Let's talk

We're seeking seed capital to launch the strategy live. Managers co-invest alongside LPs. 12–18 months to build institutional track record.